Grizzlies vs. Hawks Predictions & Picks – March 23

Published 2026-03-24

The Atlanta Hawks are on fire, and the Memphis Grizzlies are limping into State Farm Arena without Ja Morant and a host of other key contributors. Monday night’s matchup has the look of a mismatch on paper — and the numbers back that up. Here’s a breakdown of the best forecasts for tonight’s game, plus how to trade them on Novig’s prediction market exchange.

The Case for Hawks -14: Atlanta Is Steamrolling Everyone

The Hawks have won 12 of their last 13 games overall, including a remarkable 10 consecutive home wins. Over that last 10-game stretch, Atlanta has posted a point differential of +12.8, signaling that these aren’t just narrow wins — they’re blowouts.

Meanwhile, the Grizzlies are in freefall. Memphis has dropped 10 of their last 11 games, and their road woes are particularly alarming: they’ve lost each of their last three road contests by 16 points or more. To make matters worse, they’re arriving in Atlanta off a 23-point loss to the Charlotte Hornets — not exactly a confidence booster.

With Ja Morant sidelined along with other notable contributors, the Grizzlies are fielding a heavily depleted roster. The Hawks, by contrast, are healthy and playing their best basketball of the season.

Best trade of the night: Hawks -14 (-110)

This is as clean a spot as you’ll find for a heavy spread. Atlanta is covering games by wide margins consistently, and Memphis has proven it can’t keep pace on the road even at full strength. The Hawks covering -14 at home against this Grizzlies team reflects a high-probability outcome based on the available data.

What the Novig Market Is Saying

On Novig’s prediction market, Atlanta is currently priced at -1463 on the moneyline, with Memphis checking in at +1049. To put that in perspective, a -1463 price implies the market assigns Atlanta roughly a 94% probability of winning this game outright. That level of market confidence is rare — and it aligns squarely with what the underlying performance data suggests.

If you’re looking to trade this game on a platform where you get fair market prices with zero vig, Novig is where you want to be.

Same-Game Parlay: Daniels and the Under

Dyson Daniels Over Props

Dyson Daniels has been one of Atlanta’s most consistent performers recently, stepping up regardless of who else is in the lineup. With Jalen Johnson sidelined on Saturday, Daniels delivered — and his recent track record supports continued production. Over his last eight games, Daniels has hit both his scoring and rebounding targets in six of those contests.

The forecast here: - Dyson Daniels Over 13.5 points - Dyson Daniels Over 6.5 rebounds

Under 240.5

Both Atlanta and Memphis have been trending toward lower-scoring games in their recent outings. When two teams consistently play below a total in nearly all of their recent games, the Under becomes a high-value position. Tonight’s total is set at 240.5, and with Memphis’s offense struggling badly and Atlanta not needing to run up the score in a blowout, the Under looks well-supported.

SGP Combination: - Dyson Daniels Over 13.5 points - Dyson Daniels Over 6.5 rebounds - Under 240.5

Long-Shot SGP: Onyeka Okongwu’s Versatility

If you’re hunting for a higher-upside parlay, Onyeka Okongwu is the play. The Hawks big man has quietly been one of Atlanta’s most versatile contributors this month:

• Over his last five games, Okongwu has dished at least four assists on four separate occasions — an impressive rate for a frontcourt player
• He’s also been hitting from deep, averaging 1.9 made threes per game across 10 games this month

Pairing Okongwu’s playmaking and shooting with Atlanta’s spread dominance and the Under makes for a compelling long-shot ticket:

“From Downtown” SGP: - Hawks -14 - Under 240.5 - Onyeka Okongwu Over 3.5 assists - Onyeka Okongwu Over 1.5 made threes

Key Market Prices at a Glance

• Market: Atlanta Moneyline (Novig)  |  Price: -1463
• Market: Memphis Moneyline (Novig)  |  Price: +1049
• Market: Spread (Industry)  |  Price: Hawks -14 (-110)
• Market: Total (Industry)  |  Price: 240.5 (-110)

The Hawks’ moneyline price of -1463 on Novig reflects a market-implied win probability of approximately 94%. That’s the prediction market speaking — and it’s hard to argue with given Memphis’s current state.

Game Details

• : Location  |  : State Farm Arena, Atlanta, GA
• : Date  |  : Monday, March 23, 2026
• : Tip-off  |  : 7:30 p.m. ET
• : TV  |  : FDSN-Memphis, FDSN-Atlanta

Trade Tonight’s Game on Novig

The Hawks are one of the NBA’s hottest teams, the Grizzlies are one of the league’s most compromised rosters, and the prediction market is reflecting exactly what the data shows: this is Atlanta’s game to dominate.

If you want to trade on tonight’s action at fair market prices — with zero vig and no house working against you — head to Novig and explore Novig’s prediction markets. Novig operates as a true exchange where users trade against each other, winners are always welcome, and no purchase is ever necessary to participate. Get in on the action before tip-off at 7:30 p.m. ET.